March 27, 2026
USSR and Ukraine

At the collapse of the USSR, a Commonwealth of Independent States was formed, that is, something we might describe as a kind of EU, and in this context certain treaties were signed. However, until 2014, Ukrainian governments were on very good terms with Russia (which also supplied gas at virtually no cost). Then came Maidan, the ousting of the pro-Russian government, the uprising in Donbas, and the idea of joining the EU and NATO, and Ukraine came to be seen as a hostile country.

At that point, the treaties no longer hold, because they universally follow the principle of rebus sic stantibus.

It is not a matter of whether circumstances have actually changed or not: one of the parties believes that they have.